Where the smart money is moving in 2026
The Vibe Check
Happy New Year. We just closed the books on 2025, and if you are sitting in the U.S. or Canada wondering if you missed the boat—or if the market is crashing—let’s look at the actual facts.
I pulled the raw MLS data for every beachfront condo, home, and lot sold in Los Cabos (San Jose del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas) last year. The story of 2024 vs. 2025 wasn't about "frenzy" anymore. It was about divergence.
Some parts of the market got expensive (Condos), while others opened up massive opportunities for negotiation (Homes and Land). Here is the breakdown of where the money went in 2025, and what it means for your strategy in 2026.
The Big Picture: 2025 Beachfront Market Analysis
Before we look at individual listings, let's look at the total Cabo real estate market analysis. In 2025, the total volume of beachfront property sold dropped from roughly $181 Million USD (2024) to roughly $144 Million USD (2025).
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The market contracted by nearly 20%. Why? Because buyers stopped blindly throwing money at everything. They became selective. This contraction signals that pricing trends are shifting as buyers hunt for value.
At a Glance: 2024 vs. 2025 Price Comparison
We saw a clear split in direction this year. While condo prices surged, the single-family and land markets statistically softened. However, context is critical for the land data: the "12% discount" you see below was largely driven by a single specific transaction involving two adjacent developer lots. It represents a unique bulk deal rather than a market-wide drop in value.
Condos
2024: Median $1.0M
2025: Median $1.5M
Trend: UP 50% (Entry level is gone)
Homes
2024: Median $8.4M
2025: Median $6.6M
Trend: DOWN 21% (Value opportunity)
Land
2024: Sold at 100% List Price
2025: Sold at 88% List Price
Trend: Negotiation Zone (12% discounts)
1. The Condo Market: The "Entry Level" Has Vanished
If you were searching for beachfront condos in 2024 and decided to wait, the market moved against you. Prices didn't just hold; they climbed.
The Price Jump: In 2024, the median price for a beachfront condo was a solid $1,000,000. In 2025, that number shot up to $1,500,000.
Quality over Quantity: We sold fewer units (34 this year 2025 vs. 43 last year 2024), but the deals were bigger. The sub-$1M inventory is evaporating.
Value Rising: Pricing per square meter has increased (up 14%). This suggests that beachfront condos are moving from "vacation buys" to serious investment properties.
The Strategy: If you see a beachfront condo under $1.5M that checks your boxes, don't wait. The data says that bracket is disappearing fast.
2. The House Market: The Buyer’s Opportunity
While condos got pricier, the single-family home market did something very interesting compared to 2024: It slowed down. This is where the real leverage is sitting right now.
Patience is Key: In 2024, it took about 8 months to sell a beachfront home. In 2025? That jumped to 14 months (425 days). Note there was less inventory. Now January 2026 the are 15 beachfront homes on the market.
Prices Softened: The average price beachfront homes (median) dropped from $8.4M to $6.6M.
Negotiation Power: Homes sold for about 93% of the list price. On a $6M home, that’s roughly $400k+ in wiggle room.
The Strategy: Sellers are learning they can't just name their price anymore. If you have cash and patience, you can find incredible value in the single-family market right now.
3. The Land Market
The land market tells the wildest story of the 2024 vs. 2025 comparison.
In 2024, we saw one beachfront lot in Chileno Bay $20M at full price. In 2025, reality set in. We saw two major sales averaging $7M in San Jose del Cabo, but look at the negotiation:
There is a very limited beachfront land available in the Los Cabos area, at the moment there is only property available in Costa Azul. Then you find beachfront land in Playa Tortuga and Nine Palms, East Cape. This is the natural grow of the destination.
Local Expert Advice: How to Win in 2026
1. Know your leverage
1. Secure the Finite Asset. If you are buying a condo, speed is the game. If you are buying a home or land, scarcity is the game. You currently have the leverage to negotiate a better price—but don't wait indefinitely. They aren't making any more beachfront. Unlike mountainside developments where inventory keeps expanding, the shoreline is limited. Use this market window to lock in a prime, legacy location that simply cannot be replicated.
2. Watch the "Price Per M2"
Don't just stare at the total price.
Condos: ~$9,600/m2
Homes: ~$16,900/m2
Land: ~$2,280/m2 (If you find land under $2,200/m2, you are beating the market average.)
3. Don't fear the "Slow" Market
A slower market (like we see with homes) is actually a safer market for buyers. It means you aren't making impulsive decisions. Remember, Los Cabos is unique: while it is a seasonal vacation destination, the market fundamentals are incredibly solid. Because there is very little financing involved, most owners hold with cash and are not over-leveraged. This financial strength keeps the market healthy and prevents panic selling, even when the pace slows down.
Frequently Asked Questions: 2025/2026 Market
What was the average price of beachfront homes in Los Cabos in 2025?
The median sold price for beachfront single-family homes was $6.6 Million USD, a correction from the 2024 high of $8.4 Million.
With prices rising, does a beachfront property still cash flow as a rental?
Yes. While purchase prices are higher, demand for luxury short-term rentals in Los Cabos has also surged. The restricted supply of beachfront inventory means these units command premium nightly rates, keeping ROI healthy for investors who buy in prime locations.
Are condo prices dropping in Cabo?
No. Beachfront condo pricing actually increased by 50% in the median bracket, signaling strong demand for high-end inventory.
Is there still beachfront land available to build on?
It is extremely rare. Currently, there is only one single lot on the market, the 2026 reality is pure scarcity. You aren't shopping for a "deal" anymore; you are securing the last piece of the map. Contact Tomas for upcoming beachfront listings.
Ready to look?
The data is useful, but nothing replaces walking the property and feeling the ocean breeze. Whether you are chasing that rising condo value or looking to negotiate a hard deal on a beachfront lot, we know where the hidden inventory is.
Contact Tomas today. Let's find your spot in the sand.